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二十国集团如何利用好世界经济近期展现出的韧性
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IMF是什么?
IMF是什么?
IMF是什么?
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国际货币基金组织（IMF）致力于促进所有190个成员国实现可持续增长和繁荣。为此，IMF支持实施有助于金融稳定和货币合作的经济政策，这些政策对于提高生产力、创造就业和增进经济福祉至关重要。IMF由其190个成员国治理并对这些成员国负责。
IMF做哪些工作？
IMF具有三大重要使命：促进国际货币合作，支持贸易发展和经济增长，以及阻止有损繁荣的政策。为了完成这些使命，IMF成员国相互之间并与其他国际机构之间开展合作，以改善民众生活。
IMF如何开展工作？
IMF通过以下途径促进国际金融稳定：
监督工作
监测经济金融形势并向各国提供建议
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资金援助
向成员国提供贷款和其他资金援助
更多内容
能力建设
通过技术援助和培训活动，帮助各国政府实施稳健的经济政策
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IMF的监督工作包含哪些方面？
IMF通过监督工作维护国际货币体系稳定并防止其出现危机。在监督工作中，IMF与成员国政府定期开展政策对话，以便评估其经济状况，并提出有助于可持续增长的政策。通过监督工作，IMF还对区域和全球经济金融形势进行监测。
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IMF提供哪类资金援助？
向面临实际或潜在国际收支问题的成员国提供贷款和优惠资金援助，是IMF的一项核心职责。
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IMF还提供哪些支持？
IMF开展能力建设工作（即提供技术援助，培训政府官员），以帮助成员国完善经济制度，加强数据统计，并帮助其在税收征管、支出管理、货币和汇率政策、金融体系监管、法律框架等方面提升能力。IMF还向成员国提供建议，推动其采用有利经济稳定、减轻对经济金融危机的脆弱性以及提高生活水平的政策。
了解更多内容
IMF如何应对新冠疫情？
疫情及其经济冲击增加了成员国对资金援助的需求。为此，IMF临时提高了总体资金支持和紧急融资的限额。此外，IMF还延长了优惠贷款零利率政策的期限，并将紧急融资的利率永久设置为零。
以下是IMF疫情期间提供的资金援助一览。
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SDR是什么？
IMF发行一种称作“特别提款权”（SDR）的国际储备资产，用以补充成员国的官方储备。全球分配总额目前约为2042亿SDR，约合2930亿美元。IMF成员国之间可自愿用SDR兑换货币。
SDR信息中心 SDR情况简介
IMF的资金来源是什么？
IMF的资金来自三个渠道：成员国的份额、信贷安排以及双边借款协议。
成员国的份额
成员国的份额是IMF的主要资金来源。一个成员国的份额反映其经济规模和在世界经济中的相对地位。关于IMF对份额的定期检查，点击这里了解更多内容。
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新借款安排
IMF与一组成员国和机构之间的新借款安排（NAB）是份额资金的主要后备支持。2020年1月，IMF执董会同意将新借款安排的规模从扩大一倍至3650亿SDR（合5260亿美元）。
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双边借款安排
成员国还通过双边借款安排（BBAs）提供资金。2020年，IMF执董会批准了新一轮双边借款安排。其中，截至2021年2月5日，规模约为1280亿SDR（1830亿美元）的协议已经生效。
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IMF由谁管理运营？
IMF对其成员国政府负责。其组织结构的最高层是理事会，由每个成员国的一位理事和一位副理事组成，通常是中央银行或财政部的最高官员。理事会每年在IMF/世界银行年会之际开会一次。国际货币与金融委员会（IMFC）由24位理事组成，向IMF执董会提供咨询。
IMF的日常工作由代表全体成员国的24位成员组成的执董会负责管理，并由IMF工作人员提供支持。总裁是IMF工作人员的首脑并担任执董会主席，由四位副总裁协助。
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IMF是何时成立的？
IMF于1944年7月在联合国布雷顿森林会议上被构想而出。参加此次会议的44个国家寻求建立一个国际经济合作框架，避免再次出现导致20世纪30年代大萧条的竞争性货币贬值。
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2024年1月
世界经济展望更新，2024年1月：通胀放缓和增长平稳开拓通往软着陆的道路
2023年10月
2023年10月《全球金融稳定报告》第三章：释放新兴市场和发展中经济体私人气候融资的金融部门政策
2023年10月
《财政监测报告》2023年10月：“气候的十字路口”：全球变暖背景下的财政政策
2023年9月
2023年年报：努力开展协调合作
2023年9月
《金融与发展》：阿拉伯世界的经济命运
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About the IMF
The IMF is a global organization that works to achieve sustainable growth and prosperity for all of its 190 member countries. It does so by supporting economic policies that promote financial stability and monetary cooperation, which are essential to increase productivity, job creation, and economic well-being. The IMF is governed by and accountable to its member countries.
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The IMF by the numbers
190
The IMF is governed by and accountable to 190 countries that make up its near-global membership.
44
The IMF was founded by 44 member countries that sought to build a framework for economic cooperation.
1944
The IMF was established in 1944 in the aftermath of the Great Depression of the 1930s.
1 trillion
The IMF is able to lend about $1 trillion to its member countries.
What does the IMF do?
The IMF fosters international financial stability by offering:
POLICY ADVICE
Monitoring economic and financial developments and advising countries.
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FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE
Loans and other financial aid to member countries.
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CAPACITY DEVELOPMENT
Technical assistance and training to help governments to implement sound economic policies.
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How is the IMF organized?
At the top of its organizational structure is the Board of Governors, consisting of one governor (usually the minister of finance or the governor of the central bank) and one alternate governor from each member country. All powers of the IMF are vested in the Board of Governors. The day-to-day work of the IMF is overseen by its 24-member Executive Board, which represents the entire membership and is supported by IMF staff. The Managing Director is the head of the IMF staff and Chair of the Executive Board and is assisted by four Deputy Managing Directors. The IMF has 18 departments that carry out its country, policy, analytical, and technical work.
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Meet the IMF team
The strength of the IMF comes from its talented and diverse employees. The IMF’s global workforce of about 3,000 hails from over 160 countries. Together, they represent a world of cultures, backgrounds, and skills that strive to live core Fund values of excellence, honesty, impartiality, inclusion, integrity, and respect. Learn more about people working at the IMF in the 2020-2021 diversity and inclusion report.
LEARN MORE ABOUT WORKING AT THE IMF
On which issues does the IMF focus?
Trade
Open, stable, and transparent trade policies are key for economic growth and resilience and for addressing key global challenges, including climate change, food security, and underdevelopment. Learn more
Fiscal Policy
Fiscal policy is the use of government spending and taxation to influence the economy. The IMF monitors and analyzes global fiscal trends and advises IMF member countries on fiscal issues directly. Learn more
Sovereign Debt
The ability to carry debt varies widely among countries. Debt vulnerabilities have increased especially in low-income countries and some emerging market economies. Learn more
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How is the IMF financed?
The IMF's resources mainly come from the money that countries pay as their capital subscription (quotas) when they become members. Each member of the IMF is assigned a quota, based broadly on its relative position in the world economy. Countries can then borrow from this pool when they fall into financial difficulty.
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What kind of research does the IMF do?
Economic research is a core activity at the IMF and is dedicated to fostering a deeper understanding of the global economy by analyzing economic trends, challenges, and their implications for both individual countries and the international community. IMF research covers a broad spectrum of macroeconomic and financial issues, including exchange rates, fiscal policy, monetary policy, and global financial stability. Have a look at our publications, which highlight the real-time advice, capacity development, and support the Fund has provided to our members.
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2023年10月《世界经济展望》
2023年10月《世界经济展望》
《世界经济展望》
应对全球分化
2023年10月
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增速预测
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报告全文
概览
全球复苏依然缓慢，地区分化不断加剧，政策失误几无余地
全球经济增速的基线预测值将从2022年的3.5%降至2023年的3.0%和2024年的2.9%，远低于3.8%的历史（2000-2019年）平均水平。在发达经济体，随着政策收紧开始产生负面影响，经济增速预计将从2022年的2.6%放缓至2023年的1.5%和2014年的1.4%。新兴市场和发展中经济体2023年和2024年的经济增速预计将小幅下降，从2022年的4.1%降至2023年和2024年的4.0%。由于货币政策收紧，加之国际大宗商品价格下跌，预计全球通胀率将从2022年的8.7%稳步降至2023年的6.9%和2024年的5.8%。总体来看，核心通胀预计将更缓慢地下降，大多数国家的通胀预计要到2025年才能回到目标水平。
当前，货币政策措施和框架是保持通胀预期有效锚定的关键。第二章阐述了短期和中期通胀预期以及不同经济主体通胀预期的最近趋势。该章强调了货币政策框架（包括沟通策略）在管理经济主体通胀预期、从而帮助以较低产出成本来降低通胀方面发挥的互补性作用。鉴于各方对地缘经济割裂的担忧日益增加，第三章分析了全球大宗商品贸易的扰动会对大宗商品价格、经济活动和绿色能源转型产生何种影响。
报告全文
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前言
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增速预测
2023年10月《世界经济展望》报告章节
第一章：全球前景与政策
全球各地区的增长前景出现分化，这对各国恢复疫情前的产出趋势构成了挑战。尽管有迹象显示经济在2023年较早时呈现出了韧性，但为降低通胀而收紧政策的影响预计将使未来的经济活动降温。由于瑞士和美国当局果断采取行动遏制了金融动荡，因此，经济前景面临的风险比今年早些时候更为平衡；然而，风险仍然偏向下行，这意味着容不得任何政策失误。货币政策应坚持将通胀控制在目标水平，同时需要开展财政整顿来应对不断飙升的债务。在政策空间有限的情况下，实施结构性改革对于重振中期增长前景至关重要。为了加快推动绿色转型、增强抵御气候冲击的韧性并改善数百万人的粮食安全，我们需要加强多边框架并坚持基于规则的国际合作平台。
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第二章：管理预期：通货膨胀与货币政策
全球各地的通胀在2022年达到了数十年来的最高水平。虽然总体通胀已经下降，但核心通胀表现出了更大的粘性。过去两年经历的高通胀，可能导致通胀预期长期处于高位，这将使央行将通胀降回至目标水平的工作更趋复杂。第二章总结了不同经济体、不同经济主体和不同期限的通胀预期的最近走势。实证分析显示，短期通胀预期对通胀走势的作用越来越大。使用基于模型的方法，该章发现，推升通胀的供应冲击正长期持续；此外，当预期通过“回溯”方式形成时，货币政策的有效性会降低。然而，改善货币政策框架（包括沟通策略）能更好地为经济主体提供信息来帮助其形成预期，促进通胀更快回归目标水平并降低相应的产出成本，从而对标准的周期性政策起到补充。
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第三章：全球割裂与大宗商品市场：脆弱性与风险
俄罗斯入侵乌克兰导致主要大宗商品市场出现割裂，而地缘政治紧张局势可能会使情况雪上加霜。第三章探讨了大宗商品贸易的进一步扰动可能会对大宗商品价格、经济活动和能源转型产生何种影响。该章得出了四个结论。第一，由于大宗商品生产集中度高，难于替代，且对科技具有关键作用，因而大宗商品特别容易受到市场割裂的影响。第二，进一步的市场割裂将导致大宗商品价格大幅摇摆、波动加剧。第三，大宗商品贸易扰动将对各国产生极不均衡的影响，但由于各国之间的抵消效应，全球损失看来有限。低收入国家由于高度依赖农业进口，将承担极大的经济成本。第四，矿物市场的割裂将推高能源转型的成本。在一个示意性的情景中，到2030年，可再生能源和电动汽车领域的投资将因此减少三分之一。若能达成一个绿色走廊协议，则可以保证关键矿物的国际流动。若能就基本粮食类大宗商品达成类似协议，则可稳定农业市场。此类协议将保障我们在应对气候变化和粮食安全问题上实现全球性目标。
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出版物
《世界经济展望》
最新发布
《全球金融稳定报告》
最新发布
财政监测报告
最新发布
2022年10月
亚太地区经济展望
2023年9月
《金融与发展》：阿拉伯世界的经济命运
2023年9月
2023年年报：努力开展协调合作
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Navigating Global Divergences
The baseline forecast is for global growth to slow from 3.5 percent in 2022 to 3.0 percent in 2023 and 2.9 percent in 2024, well below the historical (2000–19) average of 3.8 percent.
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A Disrupted Global Recovery
Growth slows as economies grapple with supply disruptions, higher inflation, record debt and persistent uncertainty.
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A Proposal to End the COVID-19 Pandemic
What urgent steps can halt the rising human and economic toll of the pandemic? Here are 7 proposals to end the pandemic.
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